St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook, as warmer temperatures and forecasted rainfall is expected to raise water levels throughout the watershed and weaken or break up any remaining ice cover creating a risk of flooding in low-lying areas.
Environment Canada is tracking a Colorado low pressure system that is expected to move into the area early Thursday morning, bringing warmer temperatures and significant rain which will continue into the weekend. Total accumulation may be in the range of 20-30 mm, with locally higher precipitation amounts possible for areas that experience embedded thunderstorm activity. At this time the track of the low-pressure system is uncertain, and as such precipitation type, timing and amounts may change.
“Increased runoff is expected due to frozen ground conditions, which will result in elevated water levels in local creeks and streams,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. Local watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, ponding in low lying areas and agricultural fields, and locations with poor drainage. Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding.
Field observations taken along Kettle Creek down to Port Stanley indicate very little snow cover and mostly open water conditions. However, there is still ice cover downstream of the Port Stanley lift bridge out to Lake Erie. The Lake remains 75% frozen. While the risk of a major ice jam and related flooding has lessened, residents should be aware that ice jams may cause rapid backwater effects and may quickly create flooding situations. The timing and extent of flooding will depend on the amount of rain received and how the remaining ice in Port Stanley breaks up. Residents are advised to monitor local conditions and take appropriate precautions.
Fast moving water can be an attraction to the public, especially children, but they should stay away. Banks are extremely slippery, and the water is very cold. Parents and guardians are urged to keep children away from ponds and reservoirs. Ice conditions on any remaining frozen water bodies are unstable and unsafe at this time of year. “Spring weather can be unpredictable, which can make rivers and lakes more dangerous than normal as conditions can change quickly,” warns Dow.
Residents along Kettle Creek are advised to monitor their local conditions and are reminded to remove property from low-lying areas and to clear snow and ice from storm drains.
KCCA will closely monitor local conditions and will provide any updates if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook will remain in effect until March 8, 2026. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations
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