Warm-up to cause run-off, risk of ice jams
St. Thomas –Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement -Flood Outlook, as warmer temperatures and forecasted rainfall over the next three days is expected to raise water levels throughout the watershed and weaken or break up ice cover. There is still uncertainty in timing and extent of the precipitation. However, there is a risk of flooding in low-lying areas and rapid rises in water levels caused by ice jams.
Environment Canada is tracking a Montana low pressure that is expected to move into the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing warmer temperatures and significant amounts of mixed precipitation before leaving the region early Thursday. Total accumulation may be in the range of 25-35 mm. At this time the track of the low-pressure system is uncertain, and as such precipitation type, timing and amounts may change. The existing snowpack water equivalency is estimated to be between 50-60 mm.
“The extensive snow covering the watershed can absorb some of the forecast precipitation, however frozen ground conditions and melt of accumulated snow could contribute to increased runoff, further increasing water levels in local creeks and streams,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. Local watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, ponding in low lying areas and agricultural fields, and locations with poor drainage. Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding.
In addition, field observations taken along Kettle Creek down to Port Stanley indicate extensive ice coverage. In Port Stanley, there is approximately 12-16 inches of ice cover between Southwold Wall and Lake Erie. Lake Erie is currently 95% frozen with 12-28-inch-thick ice. As a result, there is an increased risk for ice jam related flooding. Residents should be aware that ice jams may cause rapid backwater effects and may quickly create flooding situations. The timing and extent of flooding will depend on the amount of rain received over the next three days and how the ice breaks up in Port Stanley. Residents are advised to monitor local conditions and take appropriate precautions.
“Currently water levels throughout the watershed are lower than normal, however conditions can change quickly,” says Dow. “We are entering prime flood season where conditions can change rapidly.”
Dow warns that fast moving water and breaking ice can be an attraction to the public – but they should stay away. Banks are extremely slippery, and the water is very cold. Parents and guardians are urged to keep children away from ponds and reservoirs. Ice conditions on frozen water bodies are unpredictable and unsafe at this time of year.
Residents are reminded to remove property from low-lying areas and to clear snow and ice from storm drains. “Once the thaw is underway, it is important that the meltwater has somewhere to go,” says Dow.
KCCA will closely monitor local conditions and will provide any updates if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook will remain in effect until February 20, 2026. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations