St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is upgrading the current Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook to a Flood Watch due to the potential for flooding in low-lying areas and risk of ice jams in Port Stanley as warmer temperatures and significant rain move through the area Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Field observations taken along Kettle Creek down to Port Stanley Tuesday indicate that there is approximately 6-7 inches of full ice cover between the Robert’s Line retaining wall and the Port Stanley harbour. Lake Erie also remains frozen at the mouth of Kettle Creek.
“Ice conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next several days,” says Jennifer Dow, KCCA’s water resources supervisor. “As water levels rise in Kettle Creek from melting snow mixed with the anticipated rain, deteriorating ice may jam causing the creek to back up rapidly.”
Environment Canada forecasts suggest that the total precipitation accumulations may be in the range of 15-20 mm, with the bulk of the rain and warmer temperatures occurring on Wednesday. These weather conditions are expected to raise water levels in the creek and create a set-up that could create ice jams in the lower reaches of Kettle Creek in Port Stanley.
Local watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, ponding in low-lying areas, agricultural fields, and locations with poor drainage, and natural floodplain areas and parks that traditionally flood in the spring. Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding.
Stay Safe
Residents along Kettle Creek are advised to monitor their local conditions. Residents should be aware that ice jams may cause rapid backwater effects and may quickly create flooding situations with little notice. Residents of flood prone, low-lying properties in Port Stanley are most at risk and are encouraged to take the necessary precautions, including moving property out of floodplain areas adjacent to Kettle Creek.
Dow warns that fast moving water and breaking ice can be an attraction to the public – but they should stay away. Banks are extremely slippery, and the water is very cold. Parents and guardians are urged to keep children away from ponds and reservoirs. Ice conditions on frozen water bodies are unpredictable and unsafe at this time of year. Accessing frozen natural water bodies puts both the public and municipal first responders at risk.
KCCA will closely monitor local conditions and will provide any updates if conditions warrant. This Flood Watch will remain in effect until Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
-30-
Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.