St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook, reminding residents to take extra caution near creeks and streams as significant rain moves into the area.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is monitoring a slow-moving low-pressure system expected to move into the region late Monday afternoon and into Tuesday bringing with it the potential for heavy downpours. Widespread precipitation amounts of 30-40 mm are expected and areas that receive heavy downpours during embedded and persistent thunderstorm activity could see total accumulations in excess of 50+ mm before the system moves out of the area Wednesday. At this time, the track of the weather system is uncertain, and as such precipitation timing and amounts may change.
“Elevated runoff from forecasted rainfall can be expected, increasing flows in the drainage and creek network across the watershed,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for the Kettle Creek Conservation Authority.
Watershed areas that receive more than 50 mm of rain have a heightened risk for flash and localized flooding. In addition, intense rainfall has the potential to cause overland flow and scouring of fields, ponding in low-lying areas, roadways and agricultural fields, and minor flooding into natural floodplain areas and parks that traditionally flood in the spring.
“Flows over the next couple of days may be higher than normal,” warns Dow. Fortunately, water levels and flows throughout the watershed are currently at seasonal low levels with the potential for available capacity to accept heavy rainfall.
At this time, forecasted wind speeds and direction, and current Lake Erie water levels are not conducive to major storm surge in Port Stanley. A close watch on local conditions is recommended should conditions change.
Residents are advised to carefully monitor their local conditions and take appropriate action should conditions change. Parents and caregivers are urged to keep children and pets away from creeks and riverbanks, floodplain areas and ponds. Banks can be very slippery and unstable, and creeks can be fast flowing. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.
Updates will be made available if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook will remain in effect until 12:00 PM on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. For further updates, visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.
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