St. Thomas –Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook, reminding residents to take extra caution near creeks and stream as significant rain moves into the area this weekend.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is monitoring two low-pressure systems that are set to merge Saturday morning, forming a very strong, north-south orientated weather system, that is expected to extend across the province from Moosonee to Kitchener. Once formed, this intense low-pressure system is expected to stall over the region for at least 48 hours, producing substantial precipitation.
Total accumulation for the region is forecast in the range of 40-60mm over the weekend, with the potential for an additional 15-25mm of rain from moderate thunderstorms that develop on Saturday. However, severe thunderstorm activity is a possibility on Saturday, where up to 50mm of additional precipitation could fall across the region. Fortunately, thunderstorm activity forecast for Sunday should be lower in intensity, bringing only 10-20mm of additional rain. As a result, the total accumulation for this event could surpass 100-120mm, from Saturday to Monday.
“Currently, water levels in local creeks and streams are at seasonal lows,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for the Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. “However, forecasted rainfall may result in significant runoff, increasing water levels and flows in local watercourses making them unsafe,” warns Dow.
Watershed areas that receive more than 50mm of rain have a heightened risk for flash and localized flooding. In addition, intense short-duration downpours have the potential to overwhelm local drainage, cause overland flows and scouring of fields, ponding in low-lying areas, roadways and agricultural fields, and flooding into natural floodplain areas. “Take this opportunity to clean out any leaves or debris from storm drains or catchbasins so that the rain has somewhere to go,” advises Dow.
Residents are advised to carefully monitor their local conditions and take appropriate action should conditions change. Parents and caregivers are urged to keep children and pets away from creeks and riverbanks, flood plain areas, and ponds. Banks can be very slippery and unstable, and creeks can be fast flowing. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Updates will be made available if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook will remain in effect until 8:30 AM on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.
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