St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook and a Lake Erie Shoreline Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook, reminding residents to take extra caution near creeks and streams due to a significant rainfall forecast and the potential for flooding in low-lying areas.
Environment Canada is tracking an unstable low-pressure system that is developing south of the border and making its way into the region bringing warm temperatures, widespread heavy rains, and blustery winds. As the system moves into Southern Ontario early Sunday morning, it will bring between 40-50mm of rain as the low moves through the region before changing to snow late Monday as temperatures drop. Rain is forecast to be heavy at times with some forecasts calling for up to 75mm in some areas. Frozen or near-frozen ground conditions that may limit infiltration combined with rain and snowmelt will result in higher-than-normal water levels/flows as well as localized nuisance flooding in low-lying areas. At this time, the track of the low-pressure system is uncertain, and as such precipitation type, timing and amounts may change.
“Currently water levels throughout the watershed have dropped back down to seasonal norms with patchy, variable snow cover throughout,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. “However, elevated runoff and saturated ground conditions may result in increased water levels and flows in local creeks and streams.” Field observations in Port Stanley show open water in Kettle Creek to an open Lake Erie in the central basin.
Local watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, ponding in low lying areas and agricultural fields, and locations with poor drainage. Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain on top of accumulated snow have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding.
Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is reminding parents to use extreme caution around all watercourses, flood plain areas, reservoirs, and ponds. “The banks can be very slippery, and the water is fast flowing and very cold,” warns Dow.
Residents along Kettle Creek are advised to monitor their local conditions. People are reminded to remove property from low-lying areas and to clear debris from storm drains. “It’s important that the rain and snowmelt has somewhere to go,” advises Dow.
Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline will see strong, sustained winds from the southwest ranging from 50-65km/hr with higher gusts of 80-100km/hr possible beginning Monday morning and continuing all day before shifting to the northwest Monday evening.
“Port Stanley is especially vulnerable to winds over 50km/hr from the southwest, which means with the current forecast, there is a higher potential for flooding and erosion along the shoreline,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for the Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. In addition, Lake Erie is mostly ice-free meaning that there is no shore ice to reduce the erosive power of potential surge.
Storm surge can cause shoreline erosion, and damage to shoreline structures due to damaging waves and localized flooding. Based on the current forecast, flood uprush activity could impact low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline in particular around the traffic circle and the lower section of William Street in Port Stanley. Residents are urged to monitor their local conditions and take appropriate action should conditions change. “Winter weather in southwestern Ontario can be unpredictable,” advises Dow.
Updates will be made available if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook and Lake Erie Shoreline Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook will remain in effect until noon on Tuesday, December 29, 2025. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Twitter @KettleCreekCA or on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Conservation Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations
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