St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook and reminding residents to take extra caution near creeks and streams due to a forecast of warmer temperatures, rain and the potential for flooding conditions.
Several fast-moving low-pressure systems combined with warmer air from south of the border are expected to bring double digit temperatures and 15-25mm of rain to the area starting late Thursday, and into the weekend before transitioning to snow late Sunday. Rain is forecast to be heavy at times. Significant precipitation combined with snowmelt, patchy snow cover and frozen ground conditions may result in higher-than-normal water levels and flows and localized nuisance flooding in low-lying areas may be possible. At this time, the track of the low-pressure system is uncertain, and as such precipitation type, timing and amounts may change.
“Currently water levels throughout the watershed are slightly elevated due to last week’s snowmelt and rain event. Winter weather can be unpredictable making rivers and lakes dangerous as conditions can change quickly,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. Field observations taken along Kettle Creek indicate ice cover in slow moving areas like ponds and reservoirs, open water conditions in faster moving sections, and open or broken ice conditions in Port Stanley harbour out to a mostly ice-free Lake Erie.
No major flooding is expected at this time. However, some watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, ponding in low lying areas and agricultural fields, and locations with poor drainage. Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding.
Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is reminding parents to use extreme care around all watercourses, floodplains, reservoirs and ponds. “Banks can be very slippery, and the water is fast flowing and very cold,” warns Dow.
Residents along Kettle Creek are advised to monitor their local conditions. It is also recommended to remove property from low-lying areas and to clear any debris from storm drains.
At this time, forecasted wind speeds and direction, and current Lake Erie water levels are not conducive to storm surge in Port Stanley. A close watch on local conditions is recommended should conditions change.
Updates will be made available if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook will remain in effect until 4:30PM on Sunday, January 11, 2026. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Twitter @KettleCreekCA or on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .-30-
Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations
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