St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook to remind residents to use extra caution near creeks and streams as significant rain moves through the area over the next 24 hours.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is monitoring a sharp cold front moving in from Michigan. The system could bring torrential rain, strong to damaging winds, large hail, and the potential for supercell activity that may be conducive to tornadoes. The affected region extends from southern Ontario past the Golden Horseshoe into eastern Ontario. As a result, the timing and amount of precipitation remains uncertain.
Total accumulation for the region is forecast in the range of 10-40 mm, while isolated thunderstorms may produce an additional 25-50+ mm of rainfall in localized areas.
“St. Thomas and Port Stanley received between 20 and 50 mm of rain early this morning, which caused a minor increase in water levels and flows throughout the watershed,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for the Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. “While water levels have already come down, forecast rainfall from this system may result in significant runoff and increased water levels and flows this afternoon and overnight,” warns Dow.
Watershed areas that receive more than 50 mm of rain have a heightened risk for flash and localized flooding. In addition, intense short-duration downpours have the potential to overwhelm local drainage, cause overland flows and scouring of fields, ponding in low-lying areas, roadways and agricultural fields, and flooding into natural floodplain areas. “Take this opportunity to clean out any leaves or debris from storm drains or catchbasins so that the rain has somewhere to go,” advises Dow.
Residents are advised to carefully monitor their local conditions and take appropriate action should conditions change. Parents and caregivers are urged to keep children and pets away from creeks and riverbanks, flood plain areas, and ponds. Banks can be very slippery and unstable, and creeks can be fast flowing. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.
Updates will be made available if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook will remain in effect until 8:30 AM on Friday, September 4, 2026. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.
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