News Release
For immediate release
St. Thomas – Environment Canada is monitoring a near stationary frontal boundary that has setup in Ontario extending from the North Channel of Lake Huron to James Bay. As a result, widespread significant rainfall is forecast for the area all weekend and extending well into next week. Cumulative 5-day rainfall totals for the area could reach 50-100+ mm, with additional rain from thunderstorm activity.
“There is a risk of 20-35 mm of rain on Friday, with similar amounts forecast for Saturday and Sunday” says Jennifer Dow, water conservation supervisor for the Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. “Embedded thunderstorms could add an additional 10-15 mm each day”
At this time, widespread flooding is not expected. “Currently, water levels are at summer low flow conditions,” says Dow. However, persistent rainfall in the forecast over the next five days and beyond could result in elevated stream flows, minor flooding in low lying areas and ponding in agricultural fields.
In addition to the forecasted rain, strong westerly winds are possible Friday and into Saturday morning. Sustained wind speeds may reach up to 50 km/hr with the potential for stronger wind gusts during thunderstorms. Environment Canada’s Marine Forecast has issued a Strong Wind Warning for Western Lake Erie.
“Southwest winds along the shoreline may exceed 50km/hr beginning Friday afternoon but are expected to diminish by Saturday morning,” says Dow. “Port Stanley is especially vulnerable to winds over 50km/hr from the southwest, which means there remains a risk for flooding and erosion along the shoreline.”
Storm surge can cause shoreline erosion, and damage to shoreline structures due to damaging waves and localized flooding. Residents along Kettle Creek, are advised to carefully monitor their local conditions and take appropriate action should conditions change. KCCA is reminding parents to keep children and pets away from creeks and river banks, flood plain areas and ponds as banks can be very slippery and unstable.
KCCA staff will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as warranted. This Watershed Conditions Statement—Flood Outlook will remain in effect until Monday, June 28 at 4:30 p.m. For further updates, log on to www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with Kettle Creek Conservation Authority socially on Facebook and Twitter @KettleCreekCA.
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Jennifer Dow
Water Conservation Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement (Previously High Water Safety Bulletin): a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch (Previously Flood Advisory): Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning (No change): Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.