St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for the entire watershed as a low-pressure system is expected to bring significant rainfall to the area over the next 48 hours creating a risk of flooding in low-lying areas.
Environment Canada is tracking an intense low-pressure system that is expected to move into the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday, bringing warmer temperatures and significant rain. Total accumulation may be in the range of 30-50mm, with locally higher precipitation amounts possible for areas that experience embedded thunderstorm activity.
“Increased runoff is expected due to frozen ground conditions, which will result in elevated water levels in local creeks and streams,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. Local watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, ponding in low lying areas and agricultural fields, and locations with poor drainage. Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding.
“The warm temperatures and on average 30mm of rain that we experienced last week melted the remaining snowpack and caused elevated water levels,” says Dow. Currently, water levels throughout the watershed are back down to normal. Field observations indicate open water out to Lake Erie which remains 59% frozen. The timing and extent of flooding will depend on the amount of rain we receive Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. “Residents are advised to monitor local conditions and take appropriate precautions,” advises Dow.
Stay Safe
Residents of flood prone, low-lying properties adjacent to Kettle Creek, are most at risk and are encouraged to take the necessary precautions, including moving personal items out of flood-prone areas. Residents are advised to stay away from all waterways. Banks are extremely slippery and unstable and when combined with cold, fast-moving water pose a serious hazard.
The public is reminded to stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline and all water bodies at this time. Any remaining ice cover is weakened and unstable. Accessing frozen natural water bodies puts both the public and municipal first responders at risk.
KCCA will closely monitor local conditions and will provide any updates if conditions warrant. This Flood Watch will remain in effect until Friday, March 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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For more information contact:
Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations
