News Release
For immediate release
St. Thomas –KCCA upgrades to a Flood Watch for Port Stanley and flood prone areas in St. Thomas.
A low-pressure system is expected to track northeast across Lake Erie starting today and continuing into Thursday evening, bringing with it a messy mix of wintry precipitation to the area. Forecasted total accumulation has increased and may be in the range of 25-50+mm. At this time, the track of the low-pressure system is uncertain, and as such precipitation type, timing and amounts may change.
“Kettle Creek in Port Stanley is still under extensive ice cover. The timing and extent of flooding will depend on the amount of rain we receive tonight and tomorrow and how the ice breaks up in Port Stanley,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Conservation Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. “Residents are advised to monitor local conditions and take appropriate precautions.”
Temperatures are expected to remain above zero, within single digits, beginning this morning, and continuing into tomorrow evening, before a return to below freezing temperatures overnight Thursday. This warming trend, combined with the forecast rain, will consolidate and begin to melt the snowpack. As there is uncertainty in the rain totals and type, there is also uncertainly in the forecast of runoff amounts.
Watershed areas that receive higher rainfall amounts have a heightened risk for flash and localized flooding in low-lying areas and natural floodplain areas and parks that traditionally flood in the spring. Precipitation and rising temperatures throughout the region could also contribute to ice breakup and jamming in Port Stanley.
Residents should be aware that ice jams may cause rapid backwater effects and may quickly create flooding situations. Residents of flood prone, low-lying properties Port Stanley are most at risk and are encouraged to take the necessary precautions, including moving property out of flood-prone areas. Residents are advised to stay away from all waterways. Banks are extremely slippery and unstable and when combined with cold moving water pose a serious hazard.
Winds associated with the system are expected from the south/southwest at 30-40km/hr gusting up to 60km/hr which may cause shifts and movement of ice cover on Lake Erie. Lake Erie is currently 92% frozen and the near shore ice is approximately 2-6 inches thick. While conditions are not conductive to storm surge at this time, where ice cover is absent along Lake Erie, wind driven waves will increase the risk of shoreline erosion and ice piling along shorelines may occur.
This advisory will remain in effect until February 20, 2022. Other updates will be provided if circumstance warrant.
-30-
For more information contact:
Jennifer Dow
Water Conservation Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations