St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority (KCCA) is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook, reminding residents to take extra caution near creeks and streams due to the potential for flooding conditions as wet weather moves into the area over the next five days.
Environment Canada is tracking a series of low-pressure systems that are expected to move into the area Monday evening, bringing the potential for prolonged significant rain and mixed precipitation. Total rain accumulation over the next two days may be in the range of 30-80 mm. Additional rainfall later in the week could push the five-day rainfall totals to 100 mm or more. At this time, the tracks of the low-pressure systems are uncertain, and as such precipitation timing and amounts may change.
Increased runoff is expected, which will result in elevated water levels in local creeks and streams. Local watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, ponding in low lying areas and agricultural fields, and locations with poor drainage. “Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain due to convective thunderstorm activity have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority.
The public is encouraged to exercise extreme caution around all local waterways. Banks adjacent to rivers and creeks are very slippery and, when combined with cold, fast-moving water, pose a serious hazard. Parents are encouraged to keep their children and pets away from all watercourses, ponds and reservoirs. “Spring weather can be unpredictable, which can make rivers and lakes more dangerous than normal as conditions can change quickly,” warns Dow.
“Currently water levels throughout the watershed are normal, however conditions can change quickly,” says Dow.
At this time, forecasted wind speeds and direction, and current Lake Erie water levels are not conducive to storm surge in Port Stanley. A close watch on local conditions is recommended should conditions change.
KCCA will closely monitor local conditions and will provide any updates if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook will remain in effect until 12:00 PM on Sunday, April 5, 2026. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.
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