St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority (KCCA) is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook, as a moisture-rich system moves into the area with the possibility of a cumulative five-day precipitation total exceeding 75 mm.
Over the past month the watershed has received 107 mm of rain, approximately one and half times the average rainfall for the month of March. Consequently, the watershed may have limited ability to absorb more water, resulting in increased runoff. Depending on the intensity of the rainfall this week, small watercourses and drainage systems will fill up quickly and may result in localized flooding in low-lying areas.
Environment Canada is predicting 15-25 mm of rain per day over the next five days, bringing the possible cumulative total to 75mm before the system moves out of the area over the weekend.
“Watershed areas that receive prolonged heavy rain due to thunderstorm activity have a heightened risk for flash and minor localized flooding,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority.
The public is encouraged to exercise extreme caution around all local waterways. Banks adjacent to rivers and creeks are very slippery and, when combined with cold, fast-moving water, pose a serious hazard. Parents are encouraged to keep their children and pets away from all watercourses, ponds and reservoirs.
KCCA will closely monitor local conditions and will provide any updates if conditions warrant. This Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook will remain in effect until 8:30 AM on Monday, April 20, 2026. For further updates visit www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with KCCA socially on Facebook at www.facebook.com/KettleCreekCa .
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Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.
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