News Release
For Immediate Release
St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for the entire watershed as a low-pressure system is expected to bring significant rainfall to the area over the next 36 hours.
Forecasted total accumulation may be in the range of 15-25mm with the potential of convective storm cells embedded in the system bringing an additional 5-10mm of rain on Tuesday. At this time, the track of the low-pressure system is uncertain, and as such precipitation type, timing and amounts may change.
Residents in Port Stanley, and low-lying areas in Belmont and St. Thomas are encouraged to prepare for flooding and monitor local conditions.
“Last week’s thaw and high-water event helped to clear out a lot of ice from the upper reaches of the watershed. However, there remains a significant ice jam in Port Stanley that is currently located at the lift bridge, with ice cover extending out to the outer harbour. The timing and extent of flooding will depend on the amount of rain we receive Monday night and into Tuesday and how the remainder of the ice breaks up in Port Stanley,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Conservation Supervisor for Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. “Residents are advised to monitor local conditions and take appropriate precautions.”
Temperatures are expected to remain above zero, and possibly into the low double digits. This warming trend, combined with the forecast rain, will consolidate and begin to melt the snowpack. As there is uncertainty in the rain totals and type, there is also uncertainly in the forecast of runoff amounts.
Watershed areas that receive higher rainfall amounts have a heightened risk for flash and localized flooding in low-lying areas and natural floodplain areas and parks that traditionally flood in the spring. River ice cover that was weakened or moved during last week’s rainfall event may breakup or jam.
Stay Safe
Residents should be aware that ice jams may cause rapid backwater effects and may quickly create flooding situations. Residents of flood prone, low-lying properties in Port Stanley, St. Thomas and Belmont are most at risk and are encouraged to take the necessary precautions, including moving property out of flood-prone areas. Residents are advised to stay away from all waterways. Banks are extremely slippery and unstable and when combined with cold, fast-moving water pose a serious hazard.
Lake Erie is currently 81% frozen and the near shore ice is approximately 2-6 inches thick. While conditions are not conductive to storm surge at this time, where ice cover is absent along Lake Erie, wind driven waves will increase the risk of shoreline erosion and ice piling along shorelines may occur.
The public is reminded to stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline and all water bodies at this time. All ice cover is weakened and unstable. Accessing frozen natural water bodies puts both the public and municipal first responders at risk.
This advisory will remain in effect until February 23, 2022. Other updates will be provided if circumstance warrant.
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For more information contact:
Jennifer Dow
Water Conservation Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228