St. Thomas – Kettle Creek Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for the entire watershed as a low-pressure system is expected to bring significant rainfall to the area over the next 48 hours.
Forecasted total accumulation may be in the range of 15-25mm with the potential of convective storm cells embedded in the system bringing an additional 5-10mm of rain on Wednesday. At this time, the track of the low-pressure system is uncertain, and as such precipitation type, timing and amounts may change.
“The warm temperatures that we experienced last week melted a lot of the existing snowpack and caused some elevated water levels. It also helped to clear out a lot of ice from the upper reaches of the watershed,” says Jennifer Dow, Water Resources Supervisor for the Kettle Creek Conservation Authority. “Currently, water levels throughout the watershed are normal. However, there remains significant ice cover in Port Stanley extending out to the outer harbour and into Lake Erie. The timing and extent of flooding will depend on the amount of rain we receive Tuesday night and into Wednesday and how the remainder of the ice breaks up in Port Stanley,” says Dow. “Residents are advised to monitor local conditions and take appropriate precautions.”
Temperatures are expected to remain above zero and increase into the low double digits. This warming trend, combined with the forecast rain and frozen ground conditions, will lead to further melting of the remaining snowpack and additional runoff into local watercourses resulting in elevated water levels and flows.
Watershed areas that receive higher rainfall amounts have a heightened risk for flash and localized flooding in low-lying areas and natural floodplain areas and parks that traditionally flood in the spring. River ice cover that was weakened or moved during last week’s warmer temperatures may breakup or jam.
Stay Safe
Residents should be aware that ice jams may cause rapid backwater effects and may quickly create flooding situations. Residents of flood prone, low-lying properties adjacent to Kettle Creek, in particular those residents of Port Stanley, are most at risk and are encouraged to take the necessary precautions, including moving property out of flood-prone areas. Residents are advised to stay away from all waterways. Banks are extremely slippery and unstable and when combined with cold, fast-moving water pose a serious hazard.
The public is reminded to stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline and all water bodies at this time. All ice cover is weakened and unstable. Accessing frozen natural water bodies puts both the public and municipal first responders at risk.
KCCA will closely monitor local conditions and will provide any updates if conditions warrant. This Flood Watch will remain in effect until Friday, March 7, 2025. For further updates log on to www.kettlecreekconservation.on.ca or connect with Kettle Creek Conservation Authority socially on Facebook and Twitter @KettleCreekCA.
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For more information contact:
Jennifer Dow
Water Resources Supervisor
519-631-1270 x228
The Kettle Creek Conservation Authority issues three levels of messages:
- Watershed Conditions Statement: a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. There are two variations of these:
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected
- Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
- Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations
What can you do?
